Match Preview: Norwich City vs Brighton

A critical fixture that, if won, could seal us survival and a fourth straight season in the Premier League.

News

Regarded by many Albion fans as the game that could, if won, secure survival. Even Potter himself acknowledged where they are in the table and the impact this game could have. Saying in his press conference, “We’ve increased the gap between ourselves and the bottom three since the start of lockdown and we want to maintain that upwards momentum.” 

With fixtures against Liverpool and in-form Manchester City coming up, it makes this game even more critical to secure the three points. A win would put us at 36 points, which totals the same amount from last year (a reminder that we stayed up last year). 

However, sometimes even more than that is not enough, just ask Newcastle in 2015-16, when they were relegated in 18th place with 37 points.

Norwich have struggled this season, particularly since that stunning 3-2 win over Manchester City. That was a highlight of Norwich's promotion, but the Canaries have struggled since, and are currently in the bottom place. 

Devastating injuries have also contributed to their struggle this season. Despite the wide belief that they will be relegated, they do have slight hope (fixtures against Burnley, Watford, and West Ham upcoming). 

A few slight injury concerns coming into the game. Webster is recovering well from the hamstring injury, and Potter says he is available for selection tomorrow. Propper had some slight tightness in his thigh but its not a major concern according to the gaffer. 

What to Look For

I expect Potter to return not fully to Potterball, but certainly increase the pressure on Norwich's defense (likely with two strikers and midfield support). It seems as if for the rest of the season Potter has decided to dictate his game plan based on the opponent's strategy, rather than the opponent adjust to Potter's tactics. 

What I mean by this is simple- take the Manchester United fixtures as an example. In the first game Potter went with his aggressive 4-2-2-2 and pressed high with a high defensive line. United responded by attacking down the wings and exploiting our narrow formation, while sending continuous balls in behind on the counter. In the second game, Potter decided to drop deep defensively and respond to United's major attacking threats, letting them dictate the tempo instead. 

So, I wouldn't be surprised if he decides to do the same against Norwich, exploiting their weaknesses rather than fashioning his own tactics. 

Personally, I think this is the reason we have been able to pick up 4 points from our last 3 fixtures. If Potter had gone with his own style of play, I doubt we would have been able to pick those points up. 

Part of the reason Hughton got sacked was his lack of adaptability. Potter has probably experimented with at least 6 different formations this year, taking what he can from each. Hughton stuck with a 4-4-1-1 and then a 4-3-3, but when the 4-3-3 failed he did not re-adjust, leading to that long stretch of fixtures where we did not score a goal (13 hours). 

In my opinion, no formation is perfect, especially when you don't have world-class players. Teams like Liverpool and Manchester City can consistently play in the 4-3-3 because they have such smart and skilled players that make their tactics work every time. 

But when you aren't perfect, you have to adjust yourself- not completely- but cater just enough to the opposition that you give yourself a chance of getting a result. I thought Potter adjusted himself too much against United, giving a display that was reminiscent of the Hughton era. 

To sum it up, I expect him to continue with what he's been doing, but because it's Norwich, add more venom and control in his attack. 

Key Players

Looking at the reverse fixture, we had a signifcant number of chances- many of which fell to Neal Maupay. He squandered most of them, so I believe he must improve and take his chances this time around. 

I have to say his finishing from close range is deadly, but from distance he struggles, often firing over the bar. In the Bournemouth home game, he had three consecutive shots go off-target in the opening minutes after Jahanbakhsh's opener. He certainly will have an impact on this match, so I believe he is a key player and his finishing will be critical to whether we go in halftime 0-0 or 2-0. 

I have to be honest when I say I don't know exactly who will be critical for Norwich. On certain days, Todd Cantwell, Teemu Pukki and Emi Buendia provide the Canaries with a lethal attacking force that can ingeniously work past a defence. 

And on other days, you don't hear their names until they get substituted. I've been hearing that recently Norwich players are playing as if 'they want to get relegated', so it will be interesting to see who, if anyone, shows up for their side. In a relegation battle, effort is key. 

Just ask our second-half performance vs Newcastle last year. 

Prediction

If things are going the way they are right now for Norwich, I can't see them pulling an upset. 

3-0 to the Albion. 

I expect someone from defence (Dunk, Duffy, Burn) to get a goal from a set-piece and some kind of open-play goal(s) from our main attacking four.