Match Preview: Southampton vs Brighton

A fourth season in the Premier League has been achieved...

News

No new injury concerns for the Albion, as Steven Alzate (groin surgery) and Jose Izquierdo (knee) are the absentees. Southampton will likely be without Moussa Djenepo, who scored in the reverse fixture in late August. Yan Valery and Sofiane Boufal are also doubtful.

Brighton must play with the threat of relegation over their shoulders. Currently, five points separate them from the drop zone. A win would greatly secure their chances of safety. However, the Albion have never secured victory over Southampton in the Premier League.

The Saints have already secured their own safety and are looking to begin challenging for Europe again next season. Danny Ings prolific scoring ability helped Southampton avoid a late relegation battle.

What to Look For

There has been speculation over whether the Albion will go with a back three or back four. We begun the season with a back three of Dan Burn, Lewis Dunk, and Shane Duffy. That now has shifted to a back four of Burn, Dunk, Webster, and Tarik Lamptey. I believe that we will continue in a back four because Potter has shown he does not prefer starting the game in a back three. The last time he did so was at our 1-0 defeat to Everton. We struggled to generate attacking threat in that game until the introduction of Glenn Murray in the second half.

We did find success in a back five against Sheffield United (1-1 draw), but that was when relegation was a looming threat. The three centre-back system worked well in a defensive shape, when we brought the wing-backs down to create a back five. 

Now, Potter would like to return to possession-based football, as he has shown against Liverpool and Man City. For this reason, I think we will go with a back four. Burn and Lamptey appear to be the first-choice fullbacks, and despite heavy criticism, Webster continues to be preferred to Duffy. Captain Lewis Dunk has started every match he has been available for in the Premier League.

In midfield, Bissouma continues to show maturity and excellence under the new system. Davy Propper has been a solid regular since the beginning of the season, but has recently had a slip in form. The defensive midfield duo should be critical in preventing link-up play between Ings and the Saints midfield. I believe Potter may opt for a tactical shift, where another midfielder player drops deeper to support them. Usually, this is Gross or Mooy.  

As midfield has proven to be important in our past few games, I believe it will be again here. Because Southampton play in a 4-4-2, there is the opportunity to exploit the space between central midfield and the two center-backs. This can lead to dispossessions in dangerous areas and scoring chances. Anthony Martial had one early on in Man United v Southampton, but could not take advantage of the chance.

So, despite the fact we have not pressed much recently, we might be inclined to this time around. The 'danger area' between the midfield and center-backs, as I said, can be taken advantage of. Southampton are also quite compact, and sometimes invite width play. We can certainly take use of this, as Lamptey's overlapping run has been deadly so far. Holding the ball up in midfield and then playing it out to space out wide could be a useful source of attack for us, if done properly. 

Burn also enjoys drifting forward and providing support in attack, which does prove to be the difference on some occasions. Strength in numbers is always beneficial, especially when working around the box. And, in contrast to Bernardo, Burn does hurry to track back and cover lost ground. One of the main criticisms of Bernardo last season was that he did not track back after getting into an advanced position up the field. 

Finally, up front, finishing will be essential as it always is. Neal Maupay claimed a shocking winner against Arsenal (our first game of the restart), but has since failed to score. It has been Leandro Trossard who has shined instead, claiming the winner at Norwich and another goal versus Liverpool. His finishing will be critical and I expect him to contribute to the score sheet. Alireza Jahanbakhsh did feature against Manchester City and may start at Southampton. His positive movement upfield and tricky footwork can provide scoring chances. Club legend and veteran Glenn Murray has struggled for game time since November, only having a handful of starts. Despite that, his presence could also impact our success in front of goal. He does lack pace, but his intelligent movement in the box and presence as a classic centre-forward can prove effective in scoring goals. 

Key Players

As I have already explained, defensive midfield will be the key. Specifically, Yves Bissouma is a key player. His presence, combined with others in support, will disrupt the Southampton attack and prevent service from reaching Danny Ings. Adams is also part of the Saints presence upfield, and preventing striker link-up play is of the essence. 

Arguably Southampton's most important player this season, Ings has been sensational in front of goal. He has 19 goals in 35 appearances this season, an impressive record that amounts to an average of one goal every two games. However, a caveat in his stats is that he has no headed goals- all his goals have come from shots. This means, again, central midfield must close down the space and limit his service in front of goal. Forcing the Saints to go wide and put in deep crosses could prove effective.

Prediction

A fixture that hasn't landed us much positives in the past. Nevertheless, I believe we can achieve a result. 1-1.